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Ludo dice and safe squares
Ludo looks like pure luck, and the die does decide a lot. But the die has simple odds, and the safe squares on the board change how much risk each move carries. Knowing both makes you a better player and a calmer loser.
One die, six outcomes
The classic game uses one ordinary six-sided die. Each number from 1 to 6 has the same chance, one in six, on every roll. The die has no memory: after four rolls without a six, the next roll still has a one-in-six chance, not a better one.
Some regional versions use two dice, but the standard Ludo that LudoTalk plays uses one. Every move you make is decided by a single number between 1 and 6, which keeps the maths easy to follow.
The six is the most important number
In classic Ludo a six does two jobs. It is the only number that frees a token from the yard, and it earns an extra roll. That makes it the most valuable result by a long way.
- On average you wait six rolls for a six. More than half the time it takes four or more rolls, and about one player in six will still be waiting after ten.
- With every token in the yard, the chance of rolling at least one six in three tries is about 42 percent. That is why the "three tries" house rule is popular: it turns a long wait into a fair one.
- Because a six repeats, a player who keeps moving one token travels about 4.2 squares per turn on average (ignoring the three-sixes limit below), even though the die averages 3.5.
Three sixes in a row
The chance of three sixes in a row is one in 216, or about 0.5 percent. It is rare, but with chained turns it does happen in long games, and a streak of sixes can win a game on its own. Many rule sets forfeit it: when you roll the third six, it is not played and your turn ends. LudoTalk plays this rule so that one lucky player does not take several turns while the others watch. If your family plays without the cap, agree on that before you start, as it changes how safe it is to lead.
Exact numbers at the end
To bring a token home you need the exact number. A token three squares from the centre needs a 3, and only a 3. With a single token left, the chance of finishing on a given roll is therefore one in six, or less if it is further away. Plan the last stretch: with two tokens near home, you can use almost any roll on one of them while the other waits for its exact number.
Safe squares
A token on a safe square cannot be captured. A standard Ludo board has an outer track of 52 squares, and eight of them are safe:
- The four start squares, one for each colour, where tokens first enter the track.
- Four star squares, each one eight squares ahead of a start square. They are marked with a star or a symbol on the board.
Tokens in your own home column are also safe, because no one else can enter it. Tokens still in the yard cannot be captured either, but they are not in the game yet.
Not every Ludo has safe stars. In the German game Mensch ärgere Dich nicht there are no safe squares on the track at all, and many house rules ignore them. Check which rules you are playing.
How the danger works
The chance of being captured depends on how far an opponent's token is behind you:
| Opponent behind you by | Chance they can land on you next roll |
|---|---|
| 1 to 6 squares | One in six (about 17 percent), if they choose to move that token |
| 7 to 12 squares | Much lower: it needs a six and then a further exact number |
| 13 or more squares | Practically nothing for now |
| Any distance, but you are on a safe square | Zero |
This is why the six squares directly in front of an enemy token are called the danger zone. Most of the strategy in Ludo comes from entering and leaving it at the right moment. Our strategy and tips guide shows how.
Using the numbers
- When you roll a six and have a choice, ask whether bringing out a new token is better than moving one that is in danger.
- If you can reach a star square with the roll, check whether an opponent is close behind. A safe square is worth more when you are being chased.
- When an opponent's token sits just ahead of yours, you want the exact number to hit it. Staying one to six squares behind it keeps that chance alive each turn.
- Keep a token near home in reserve for awkward numbers late in the game.
The rules for sixes and squares are set out in full in Ludo rules.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of rolling a six in Ludo?
One in six on every roll, about 17 percent. On average a six turns up once every six rolls, and the chance of at least one six in three rolls is about 42 percent.
Which squares are safe in Ludo?
On the standard board, eight track squares are safe: the four start squares and the four star squares eight steps ahead of them. Your own home column is also safe.
Why are three sixes in a row forfeited?
Because without a limit a lucky streak could last for ever, and the other players would not move. The cap is a common rule, and LudoTalk uses it.